- New Science in old markets -

Equities – what next, part 3

As reported, we have seen multiple bottom extensions in stock indices around the world, now including China and Japan:

China & japan

These moments of general panic are good times to buy those valuable assets that have been dragged down by the crowd's behaviour and we would now include Japanese equities in our list of 'buy' candidates. Buy the Nikkei immediately. We would not include China for reasons given in the last section of the July 7th edition where we imply that Chinese leaders' efforts to sort out the over-investment mess will make things worse.

Many European indices extended, as already reported and have now bounced sharply. We warned that we would issue 'buy' advice on several indices and we would usually choose Germany as the most promising European candidate. Now, prices have run up a little too far for us to be comfortable with the risk/reward aspect of buying any of them (except Norway, which we wouldn't buy) and so we wait a bit. If there is a decent dip in the next day or so, buy Germany - our model portfolio is now full up to the limit with stock market positions so we may not do this, but it would still be our recommendation. In circumstances like these it probably doesn't matter much which index you choose to buy - almost all should move in a similar manner. Here is the current chart for Germany and France:

Dax & CAC