- New Science in old markets -

Crude oil bottom extension

Crude oil futures made bottom extensions yesterday, both in the Nymex WTI front month of September (not shown here) and in several of the London Brent forward months, this chart being for the October delivery:

Benmt bottom ext

This is as good a signal as we get, so buy some Brent here. This fits with our general switch from bearish to bullish in commodities so that we now have outstanding long positions in three - corn, gold and this new one in Brent crude. These stem mostly from daily-scale signals so this may just be a passing phase while commodities merely pause in their downtrends. It maybe more than that however, so we will review the commodity ten-day 'time-out' options* as they arrive with particular interest and will advise what we find.

*The usual 'time-out' for any trade that comes from a daily-scale signal is three weeks. Due to the extra tendency for commodities to start moving fast (the 'volatility of their volatility') with very little warning, we start to scrutinise trades in these markets for the need to get out after only ten days have passed. If there is a good reason to keep the trade we look again at the usual three-week mark. The ten-day mark for the current outstanding long trade in gold is tomorrow.