- New Science in old markets -

Grains – time to turn around again

We recommended buying grain markets in early June and again a few days later in the month, choosing soy and corn futures although we also saw the same 'buy' signals in wheat. There was soon quite a brisk rally, probably caused by fears of weather disruption from a possible recurrence of the periodic 'El Nino' Pacific ocean current change. We took profits a little too early, due to the appearance of top extensions and waited a while for a chance to re-buy, as our bullish signals were also longer-term. A chance to take a trade on the short side emerged in soy oil and we took that, which we are now contemplating covering for a reasonable profit.

We do not have a specific reason to cover this soy oil short right now except that wheat futures have now dropped back down to the levels where their initial 'buy' signals occurred (ringed in red, below) and this is where we expect support which might stop soy oil falling too. Accordingly, we now recommend buying back outstanding soy oil shorts on any further weakness in the next few days and buying some other grains to re-establish long positions. Our favourites remain corn and either soy beans or soy meal. Charts, with the story superimposed:

Grain update