- New Science in old markets -

Brazil & Taiwan

In the 1914 battle of the Marne when France just managed to stop Germany from a quick victory in WW1 the fighting was still old-fashioned with no static trenches. The Germans were advancing quickly through disordered groups of demoralised French infantry when the French commander on the spot, General Ferdinand Foch telegraphed his superior, saying "My centre is yielding, my right is in retreat. Situation excellent, I am attacking"* He turned the tide of battle.

So it is now in Brazil, where everything looks terrible but we have just seen a bottom extension in one of the iShares ETFs:

Brazil etf

The prices of commodities, including oil have fallen, on which the economy depends a great deal. There is a huge corruption scandal affecting the most senior members of the Brazilian establishment and the prime minister is widely seen as being out of her depth. There is no good news here but this extension tells us that a brave general should attack immediately. Buy Brazil.

These ETFs will do but there is also a futures contract on the main equity index that may be bought instead, which our model portfolio will do.

There are also bottom extensions in Taiwan, which we will not yet buy as our model portfolio is already long of the Hong Kong stock market. We may buy it soon and you may do so now, if inclined:

Taiwan bottom ext

*Well known in France, but possibly apocryphal, the telegram from General Foch to Marshal (then a General) Joffre apparently read: "Mon centre cede, ma droite recule; situation excellent - J'attack."