- New Science in old markets -

Upcoming market turns

There has been a marked absence of turns due in the last few months, as we have remarked in prior editions. That situation is about to change in the next few weeks so it is time for an update of forthcoming turn clusters: A cluster is merely our term for a day on or near which many separate markets are due for turns. The denser the cluster the bigger the turn tends to be.

There is a small (grade 3) to medium (grade 2) sized turn cluster due in stocks today, mostly in US indices but with a small contribution from the far-East and Europe. There is a strong possibility that this turn came a day early and marked Friday’s high in the US. There are turns due in fixed-income markets today and in many commodities too – energy, grains and metals.

A bigger equity market turn cluster (grade 2) is due mid-next week, but it is a bit diffuse spanning several days centred on Wednesday the 19th March. Europe and the far-East even start their turns on Monday the 17th. There are some commodity turns due from the 19th to the 21st

This grade 2 turn cluster is rapidly succeeded by a full grade 1 turn at the weekend from Friday March 21st to Monday 24th March. Europe and the far-East are due to turn before the weekend and the US is due afterward. There are fixed-income turns due on Monday 24th or perhaps the next day and a large number of currency turns are due on Monday 24th.

Nothing much to report the following week except a grade 3 turn in European and far-Eastern equities on Monday March 31st/April 1st.

Soon after that comes a very large turn – a full grade 1 equity index turn cluster in all parts of the world starting on the 9th April and ending on the 11th. This is much more tightly defined that the previous muddle and coincides with turns in fixed-income markets on the 10th/11th and also turns in commodities in that same three day period and currencies on the last day, the 11th April.

There are yet more turns in subsequent weeks, as we will transmit nearer the time, but none as big as this large event due centred on April 10th.

The close spacing of turn expected between March 19th and March 24th makes life difficult. There seem to be two separate events coming in this short interval but it is just possible that these many different components from various places will actually mark one event.

Close-spaced turns usually mean an increase in volatility, so whatever happens when the time comes, be braced for lots of movement, probably including larger daily ranges.