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Grains – time for a bounce? Equity turn on the 8th

Stocks, bonds and precious metals have all bounced after making bottom extensions, as reported recently. This renewed enthusiasm for buying assets of all kinds has spilled over into copper and energy markets too and we now have some reasons to think there may soon be a bounce in grains.

These have been mixed lately but mainly weak. Soya oil has now made a daily-scale bottom extension that has already stopped that decline (for now) and soya beans are in support from some old daily-scale compressions:

The longer-term outlook for grain prices still seems poor but we may now see a bear-market rally and would cover outstanding shorts. At the moment we do not see a reason to take long positions and will advise if this situation changes.

We will send an update to the calendar of upcoming market turns in the next day or so but please note that there is quite a large (grade 2) equity turn expected on Monday 8th July. This is confined to the US and Asia but it is hard to imagine that equities in both these regions could change direction without European markets also being affected. There is an energy turn also due that day but we don't see anything in bonds.