- New Science in old markets -

Real estate warning and T-Notes extend

There has been some reporting about the fast rate at which US real estate prices have recently been rising. This is considered to be evidence of the healthy state of the economy there, but we have bad news. One of the measures of this asset class that we follow has made top extensions at a daily, weekly and now also a monthly scale:

This is not a good sign and fits with the general bearishness that we have been expressing in recent editions. We are still recommending shorts in S Europe (including France) and in the US too.

Meanwhile, US 5 and 10-year T notes have made bottom extensions. We pointed out in the May 23rd edition that these instruments were approaching support from old weekly-scale compressions and this is now a crisp signal to buy:

More soon,