- New Science in old markets -

Grain update and turn reminder

The grain markets are continuing to diverge a bit. We advised taking long positions in corn and soybeans on Feb 25th as shown by the blue arrows in the top two charts. Corn has risen, after a dip during the following week to re-test the lows again. We advised keeping both positions on March 13th and corn has since compressed and moved higher -  these compressions are shown in the top left chart. This gives fresh impetus to the up-move, so stay long.

Soybeans have fallen since that last grain edition and are now a few cents below our recommended entry price. There is no fresh reason to stay long here and the longer-term picture has started to look poor. There are weekly scale compressions in the further months (July is shown here) and these seem to be breaking down. It is a little too early in the week to be sure of this break, so a close sell-stop might be the best tactic to choose until nearer the week’s closing on Friday.

Wheat has fallen far enough to be in support from old weekly-scale compressions (bottom left chart, above) but we still haven’t found a place to recommend buying it. It seems unlikely to fall from here because of that support, but we are waiting for some daily-scale signal. If you need to trade it, be long, but don’t risk much.

We are still expecting an equity turn in the next few days. This cluster of individual index turns starts tomorrow the 21st March and continues across the weekend until Monday the 25th. We still cannot tell whether this turn will mark a general high or low point as different markets are behaving in different ways. We are watching closely and will report. Prices are a little volatile here and the short-sale in Spain recommended in the 15th March edition is working well so far - we would hold that position for now.