The relative lack of stock market turns continues through this month, but there are a few features to point out. Please bear in mind that there are always lots of cross-currents in markets as we head toward year-end and so these turns may not produce the strength of result that we expect of them.
We are in a small (grade 3) stock turn cluster right now that is a bit diffuse – it started yesterday, Monday 10th December and continues today and tomorrow, the 12th. There isn’t much contribution from Europe but there is from the far-East, most of which comes on the last day, tomorrow. That part of the turn might have occurred last night, looking from London at the overnight price action from that time zone. There is another far-East turn cluster almost immediately afterward across the weekend 15th/16th December. There are some commodity turns on Monday the 17th – mostly in grains but in precious metals and energy too.
Next there is a slightly bigger stock cluster (grade 2) due on Thursday the 20th December. This coincides with a bond turn from the long-term US series, which often produces good turns in the longer end of the US treasury market. This stock turn is particularly marked in Europe.
Next, we get into the usual shambles toward the end of the year. There is due to be a grade 3 stock turn on Friday 28th, together with turns due in energy, precious metals and soya beans. There is another long-term bond index turn at the same time, which could come either on this day or after the weekend.
There is a grade 3 stock turn on Tuesday 2nd/Wednesday 3rd January that probably marks the same event as a far-East turn due on the 4th. There are also lots of grain turns during these two days.
Normality returns on the 8th January with a grade 2 stock turn cluster, mostly in the US – we will calculate turns from more markets between then and now and comment more about this date in a few weeks.
More on other markets soon.