- New Science in old markets -

New signals in stocks and bonds but no new conclusions

The main feature of the investment world is that we are seeing many, many compressions in Equity indices on a daily scale to go with the weekly-scale compressions that already exist in the US Dow transport index and in US bonds. Some examples:

Others have only made one attempt at compressing and here are some examples (they are not the only ones):

All this means that we are still balanced on a knife edge in many (if not most) of the world's equity markets with a big move pending. We have still no strong clues as to which way the next moves will be, so we keep our advice short-term for now. The exception to this is our long-held view that Germany is a buy in almost all circumstances.

Bonds too are still compressing - the weekly compressions that we reported are still recurring. Here is a chart of the 30-Year US Treasury bond yield. This gives better signals as it is a long-term series that does not have to be adjusted every time a futures contract expires:

Pressure continues to build up in all these markets AND in those that will be affected by them.

A grain edition will follow tomorrow, where sideways price movement is also changing the outlook.