The core of HED's business is analysing markets - principally financial, commodity and FX markets and occasionally real estate. We use the tools of behavioural finance, which is the discipline developed over the last two decades to study how shifts in crowd behaviour affect markets. The HED approach is to examine the feedback forces that often exist in markets whereby the movement of prices affects the behaviour of the trading crowd. This is the only plausible explanation for strange market circumstances, such as when rising prices of residential real estate in London provoke fresh buyers to enter the market, so pushing prices even higher in a seemingly endless persistent uptrend. This is how bubbles eventually form but also how trading ranges can keep going for lengthy periods, forming cycles as they develop.
Our contribution to this is to use measuring tools, some developed by HED in-house and some with our friends at Parallax Financial Research, to gauge when the state of feedback in a market reveals that it is ready for a change. The methods we use to do this are described in the two videos on this site, in both the summary and full userguides, in New Science in Old Markets and in the Annual report.
We analyse markets, publish the results and use them to construct portfolios. The output takes two forms, both available to subscribers on this website:
HEDLines appears on the front page and provides a running commentary, with examples and argument, on our view of the main world markets. We look at different time frames, from a few years down to a few weeks and try to relate the signals that we see across different sorts of asset and multiple geographic locations. We have published this since 2001, adding 'firm' trading recommendations from mid 2007.
AlphaMail is also on the front page and provides a stream of trading recommendations from this analysis and commentary, together with a set of rules to manage those trades. These trades, together with the rules used to manage them to construct a portfolio is known as the HED Program and is used to advise several funds. See more in the fund management section.
The Archive is where you can read all the old editions of both HEDLines and AlphaMail. The most recent editions are for subscribers only but any visitor to the site can look at these older editions.