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Cocoa rallies into resistance – sell some

Cocoa prices have been trading in a range all this year and in a slightly wider range for the two prior years. There were some weekly-scale compression signals in June and July that seem to have broken downward, arguing that this trading range may either break into a downtrend or (more likely) widen a bit by moving lower.

More recently there has been a small rally back up toward the compressed area. This 'return movement' is typical of price behaviour after an initial compression break and is a chance to sell some short at around current levels:

cocoa wkly comp

There is a slight 'backwardation' in both London and New York Cocoa futures, meaning that the nearest month trades at a higher price than the next one along. In keeping with our standard approach when short-selling commodities, please don't sell the front month as this slight premium could get much bigger if there is an inventory squeeze. December 2016 futures have enough volume to be tradable so we advise selling that month, not September.